It's hard to believe that the NFL season is already coming to an end. It comes and goes so quickly that sometimes we forget to stop and smell the turf. This season has been another exciting one (despite the persistent failures of my Cowboys) where teams that didn't have high expectations made a playoff run (49ers, Broncos, Bengals) and teams that were expected to contend fell flat on their faces (Eagles, Jets, Colts). It was also a season in which a 27 year old passing record fell twice and a third QB threw for 5,000 yards for the first time in history.
Sadly, the running game seems to have become an afterthought for most NFL offenses but a couple of teams (Ravens and 49ers) have shown that defense and ball control can still be a championship formula. And that brings us to this weekend. Two of those three 5,000 yard passers will be on display in this weeks championship games against tenacious defenses and persistent run games. It's the old NFL versus the new NFL and this weekend could determine the trajectory of the league for years to come. Will teams finally realize that the NFL rules are two conducive to passing the ball and there is no way a team can expect to win a championship with defense and a good run game? Or will the football traditionalists be vindicated by the phrase "Defense Wins Championships" (just to have the NFL change another rule)? One or both of these questions could be answered in the next 36 hours and potentially change the way several teams go about their business.
Giants at 49ers
I am not surprised at all by the Giants run. I watched the dismantling of the Cowboys in week 17 first hand, and witnessed what we all now know- the Giants are a good team and they are the healthiest team in the tournament. Once again, Tom Coughlin has gone from being on the verge of being axed to the threshold of greatness with a seemingly flawed team. This team might be flawed but they are tough as nails. They have seen it all and they are unafraid of what they might face week to week. The Atlanta Falcons at home? So what they went 11-5. This is the same team that got waxed by Green Bay last year and people expected the Giants to be afraid of them? No thanks, 24-2, on to the next. Green Bay on the road? Didn't they already do this? And it was a close game, right? Aaron Rogers needed some last minute magic to seal the deal? And he hasn't thrown a football in a live game in over two weeks? And the Giants are a better team now then they were the first time around, right? Green Bay was in hibernation in the chilly confines of Lambeau and the Giants lit them up 37-20. After beating the Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, and Green Bay the Giants may not be the hottest team in the NFL, but they are certainly the most confident. I believe they have the edge in this match-up.
But the 49ers will be the best team that the Giants have faced this season. I am not saying that just because they are in the championship game (although that is a persuasive point) but this team will create some problems for the Giants. Defensively, the 49ers are one of the best tackling teams in the NFL. Although the Giants are used to tough physical football games, I don't know if any team in the NFL is used to getting hit for 60 minutes and that's something that the 49ers do. The Giants will have an extremely tough time running the ball against this football team and if you put the game on Eli's shoulder's he's probably going to throw at least one interception. Further, the 49ers have the perfect offense to neutralize the Giants pass rush. They are going to run the ball persistently at those four defensive ends that they keep on the field and they're passing game is predicated on short, quick, high percentage throws. This is not Green Bay, Dallas, or the Patriots where the passing game is primary and the big play is a must. The Giants will have to find a way to force the 49ers to put the ball in the air if they want to have a shot.
In the end, I think this game will be very close which is why I have to go with the Giants. Any other year I would pick the 49ers to down the hated Giants but Eli Manning is the NFL record holder for fourth quarter touchdown passes in a season. This guy is not going to whither away in crunch time and I believe he will leadl his team to a win with a last minute 4th quarter touchdown: 27-24 Giants.
Ravens at Patriots
This game is similar to the Giants vs. 49ers in the sense that it will feature a prolific passing game against a stout defense. But unlike the Giants, the Patriots have not suddenly found an effective running game and a stingy defense to catch teams by surprise. The Patriots' playoff success begins and ends with Tom Brady. And the last time the Patriots played the Ravens in the playoffs, it was not a pretty sight. Tom Brady got abused all game and the Ravens pounded the ball over 50 times. Joe Flacco only threw ten passes the whole game. This time around the Ravens are a more complete offensive football team and their defense is as staunch as ever.
But the Patriots should win this game because it begins and ends with Tom Brady I think we've all been learning over the last ten years not to count out Tom Brady. He's proved us fallible and incompetent since that fateful day in the 2000 draft and he has since picked up three Super Bowls and a couple of MVPs to add to this trophy case. The last few years have been tough on the Patriots. They haven't had many playoff victories and have been very beatable at home. And the last time they went to the Super Bowl they were handed the most bitter defeat in franchise history a the hands of the aforementioned Eli Manning and the New York Giants.
For all of these reasons, I have to go to the Patriots. Tom Brady will have his team ready to play and ready to fight on Sunday and they will score plenty of points. The Ravens defense, for all its accolades, is built to stop the run. The Patriots don't even bother. This was the case when they met in the playoffs a couple of years ago, but Brady did not have Wes Welker (who got hurt in week 17 against the Texans) and Brady definitely did not have Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This is a different Patriots offense and the Ravens are essentially the same.
Tom Brady wants this bad, and I think we can all feel it. Even Chad Ochocinco mentioned on Twitter how intense Brady was for the post-season. Whether it is the trash talking (Brady 2-0 this season) of the New York Jets or the constant attention showered on Tim Tebow (Brady 2-0 this season), Brady uses any sort of slight or disrespect as fuel for his competitive fire. That shellacking in the 2009 playoffs is fresh in Brady's mind whether he admits it or not and he's looking to shut somebody up.
On the other side, Joe Flacco is the antithesis of Brady. I hope he doesn't read this because I don't want him to get upset and respond in the media, but Flacco seems a little thin skinned to me and apparently to his own teammates . We all know that Flacco is a pretty good quarterback who has "gotten" his team to the playoffs the last four years with just a little bit of help from his running game and his defense. But he has come up small at times and has a ways to go to prove his worth to the fan base. You do that by working hard, playing well, and winning. You don't do that by getting defensive and airing your personal feelings in the media. So what if know no one is giving you the respect you think you deserve? Who cares? You need to get out of the newspaper and get into the playbook. That's what Tom Brady would do. Who cares that Ed Reed (a first ballot hall of famer who Bill Belichick declared the greatest free safety of all time) criticized you and the offense for only scoring three points in the second half? That is what happened isn't it? And he said you looked rattled? That seems fair considering Flacco barely completed 50% of his passes. Get over it and move on to the next game. The fact that he hasn't managed to squash the media attention surrounding it yet makes me wonder about his leadership.
Flacco should have simply said that no one on the offense, including himself, played up to their standards and that they're going to have to get a lot of things straightened out for them to have a chance against the Patriots. And then he could have jokingly remarked that the game would have been a lot less stressful if the defense would have just pitched a shutout like they were supposed to, but they as an offense definitely need to improve. Seems like a reasonable solution. But Flacco is making it obvious to the media that he's not taking Reed's comment lightly and he is letting the remarks effect his thoughts. If Joe Flacco comes up small on Sunday he will never hear the end of it.
Prepare for a long off-season Flacco because I think the Patriots will win this one comfortably 24-14. Tom Brady rarely ever loses at home and he has not gotten over that last playoff loss. I expect perfection from him. Not so much from Flacco.
That's my take folks, and there will be more to come in the next two weeks as the Super Bowl approaches.
Until then, just live in this moment for as long possible. Because in just a couple of weeks the NFL will be on a nice long break and I will be spending my Sunday's sulking and reliving the season over and over again through Madden.
Cheers.
