THE YEAR OF THE RUNNING BACK
In every NFL draft there is at least one position that is laden with talent. More often than not, this fresh crop of virtuosos wastes very little time in announcing its presence to the rest of the NFL. The hype swells over the course of training camp and preseason, but it all counts for nothing until the promise actually manifests itself on the playing field during the regular season. We’ve seen years (like the class of 2006) that were so diverse they defied designation. We’ve also had years (like the class of 2005) that were a little more singular in positional depth. This year, I believe, we can officially label as “The Year of the Running Back.”
The first thing that strikes me about this year’s pool of running backs is the pure speed. Let’s refresh our memory on some of their timed forties at the Combine this past year:
Chris Johnson: 4.24
Darren McFadden: 4.27
Jamaal Charles: 4.36
Rashard Mendenhall: 4.43
Felix Jones: 4.44
Steve Slaton: 4.44
Matt Forte: 4.46
Jonathan Stewart: 4.48
Let’s just say they’re probably not going to be chased down from behind by anybody in the open field. Of course, speed only goes so far. Every year we see players fly up the draft boards because of their Combine numbers, even if their collegiate careers left something to be desired. Fabian Washington, Chris Henry, Troy Williamson…the list goes on and on. This 2008 crop of running backs, however, is already producing on the field, and, if the first 4-5 games of the season are any indication, this will be the best crop of running backs in the past 10 years. Take a look at some of their projected numbers thus far:
2008
Johnson: 1219 YDS 4.5 AVG 6 TD
McFadden: 1088 YDS 5.3 AVG 4 TD
Slaton: 1140 YDS 5.0 AVG 12 TD, 400 REC. YDS 4 TD
Jones: 781 YDS 9.0 AVG 10 TD
Forte: 1226 YDS 3.6 AVG 6 TD, 550 REC. YDS 6 TD
Stewart: 861 YDS 4.4 AVG 13 TD
Hightower: 352 YDS 3.1 AVG 16 TD
Smith: 532 YDS 3.6 AVG 8 TD
Granted, this is barring any serious injuries, but those numbers would be nothing short of phenomenal. To give you a sense of comparison, I’ve examined the rookie years of running backs over the last 10 years. In that time, there has not been a single year where more than two rookies have rushed for at least 1,000 yards. There also hasn’t been a year where more than one rookie has reached double digits in rushing touchdowns. 2008 is currently on pace for four 1,000 yard rushers and four double-digit rushing touchdowns. Here’s a breakdown of the last ten crops of rookie running backs. I’ve also included the rookie stats of rushers who were limited in their first years but went on to blossom in subsequent years.
2007
Adrian Peterson (MIN): 1305 YDS 5.7 AVG 12 TD
Marshawn Lynch (BUF): 1115 YDS 4.0 AVG 7 TD
Selvin Young (DEN): 729 YDS 5.2 AVG 1 TD
2006
Joseph Addai (IND): 1081 YDS 4.8 AVG 7 TD
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC): 941 YDS 5.7 AVG 13 TD
Laurence Maroney (NE): 745 YDS 4.3 AVG 6 TD
Reggie Bush (NO): 565 YDS 3.6 AVG 6 TD
2005
Cadillac Williams (TB): 1178 YDS 4.1 AVG 6 TD
Ronnie Brown (MIA): 907 YDS 4.4 AVG 5 TD
Frank Gore (SF): 608 YDS 4.8 AVG 3 TD
Marion Barber (DAL): 538 YDS 3.9 AVG 5 TD
Brandon Jacobs (NYG): 99 YDS 2.6 AVG 7 TD
2004
Kevin Jones (DET): 1133 YDS 4.7 AVG 5 TD
Julius Jones (DAL): 819 YDS 4.2 AVG 7 TD
Brandon Jackson (STL): 673 YDS 5.0 AVG 4 TD
Michael Turner (SD): 104 YDS 5.2 AVG 0 TD
2003
Domanick Williams (HOU): 1031 YDS 4.3 AVG 8 TD
Larry Johnson (KC): 85 YDS 4.3 AVG 1 TD
Willis McGahee (BUF): DNP
2002
Clinton Portis (DEN): 1508 YDS 5.5 AVG 15 TD
William Green (CLE): 887 YDS 3.7 AVG 6 TD
Brian Westbrook (PHI): 193 YDS 4.2 AVG 0 TD
2001
Ladanian Tomlinson (SD): 1236 YDS 3.6 AVG 10 TD
Anthony Thomas (CHI): 1183 YDS 4.3 AVG 7 TD
Travis Henry (BUF): 729 YDS 3.4 AVG 4 TD
Deuce McAllister (NO): 91 YDS 5.7 AVG 1 TD
Rudi Johnson (CIN): 67 YDS 3.9 AVG 0 TD
2000
Mike Anderson (DEN): 1487 YDS 5.0 AVG 15 TD
Jamal Lewis (BAL): 1364 YDS 4.4 AVG 6 TD
Ron Dayne (NYG): 770 YDS 3.4 AVG 5 TD
Shaun Alexander (SEA): 313 YDS 4.9 AVG 2 TD
Thomas Jones (NYJ): 373 YDS 3.3 AVG 2 TD
1999
Edgerrin James (IND): 1553 YDS 4.2 AVG 13 TD
Ricky Williams (MIA): 884 YDS 3.5 AVG 2 TD
